The Influence of Macroeconomic Variables on Non-Performing Loan (NPL) at PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk

Authors

  • Binky Mohammad Radhianas Departemen Manajemen, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Manajemen, IPB University, Bogor 16680, Indonesia
  • Rindang Matoati IPB university
  • Eka Dasra Viana Departemen Manajemen, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Manajemen, IPB University, Bogor 16680, Indonesia
  • Farida Ratna Dewi Departemen Manajemen, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Manajemen, IPB University, Bogor 16680, Indonesia
  • Chuta Kaewlaead Management Sciences Faculty, Songkhla Rajabhat University, Songkhla Province, Thailand

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55732/unu.gnk.2024.06.1.6

Keywords:

Macroeconomic, Non-Performing Loan, VECM

Abstract

In recent years, Bank Mandiri's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio has been on a relatively stable decline until the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 quarter I put pressure on the Indonesian economy. Since then, Bank Mandiri's NPL ratio has increased significantly due to the global economic recession that also occurred in Indonesia in 2020 quarter III. This study aims to analyse the effect of macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product, inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates on non-performing loans (NPL) specifically at Bank Mandiri. This study uses secondary data in the form of historical data of related variables and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to estimate the dynamics of long-term and short-term relationships between variables. The results of this study indicate that macroeconomic variables such as BIRATE, INF, and LNPDB significantly affect Bank Mandiri's NPLs in the long-run dynamics, while LNKURS is statistically significant in the short-run dynamics.

 

Keywords: Macroeconomic, Non-Peforming Loan, VECM

 

 

References

Blaschke W, Jones MT, Majnoni G., &Peria SM. 2001. Stress Testing of Financial Systems An Overview of Issues, Methodologies, and FSAP Experiences. IMF Work Pap. 01(88):1. doi:https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451851168.001.

Brownbridge M. 1998. The Causes of Financial Distress in Local Banks in Africa and Implications for Prudential Policy. UNCTAD Discuss Pap. March. [diakses 2023 Jun 7]. https://ideas.repec.org/p/unc/dispap/132.html.

Daci E. 2021. Impact Of Macroeconomic Factors On Non- Performing Loans (Npl) In The Banking Sector In Kosovo. UBT Int Conf..

Diakomihalis, M., & Economakou, S. (2023). The impact of Non-Performing Loans on the Banks’ Profitability. International Conference on Business and Economics - Hellenic Open University, 1(1). https://doi.org/10.12681/icbe-hou.5305

Espinoza R., & Prasad A. 2010. Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects. IMF Work Pap. 10(224):1. doi:10.5089/9781455208890.001.

Fakhrunnas, Faaza; Nugrohowati, Rindang Nuri Isnaini; Haron, Razali Anto & MB Hendrie (2023) "The Asymmetric Relationship Between Macroeconomic Determinants And Non-Performing Loans: Evidence From The Banking Industry Of IndonesIA," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking: Vol. 26: No. 1, Article 13.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.59091/1410-8046.2049

Hussain A, Khalil A., & Nawaz M. 2013. Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-Performing Loans (Npl): Evidence From Pakistan. Pakistan J Humanit Soc Sci. 1(2):59–72. doi:10.52131/pjhss.2013.0102.0005.

Khan M., & Senhadji A. 2000. Khan 2000.pdf.

Khalil, Alnabulsi; Emira Kozarevi´c & Abdelaziz Hakimi. Non-Performing Loans as a Driver of Banking Distress: A Systematic Literature Review. Commodities 3, 2, 111–130. https://doi.org/10.3390/ commodities2020007

Louzis DP, Vouldis AT., & Metaxas VL. 2010. Macroeconomic and Bank-Specific Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in Greece: A Comparative Study of Mortgage, Business and Consumer Loan Portfolios. September.

Nkusu M. 2011. Nonperforming Loans and Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities in Advanced Economies. IMF Work Pap. 2011(161):1. doi:10.5089/9781455297740.001.

Pesaran MH, Pettenuzzo D., & Timmermann A. 2004. Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks. 3.

Pujianto, W. E., Purwono, R., Lastuti, N. D. R.. (2023). Organizational Change in Banking : Potential and Future Research Opportunities. RSF Conference Proceeding Series: Business, Management and Social Science, 3(3). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31098/bmss.v3i3.710.

Stijepović R. 2014. Recovery and reduction of non-performing loans - Podgorica Approach. J Cent Bank Theory Pract. 3(3):101–118. doi:10.2478/JCBTP-2014-0017.

Vouldis AT., & Louzis DP. 2018. Leading indicators of non-performing loans in Greece: the information content of macro-, micro- and bank-specific variables. Empir Econ. 54(3):1187–1214. doi:10.1007/s00181-017-1247-0.

White H. 1980. A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity. Econometrica. 48(4):817. doi:10.2307/1912934.

Downloads

Published

2024-07-01

How to Cite

Radhianas, B. M., Matoati, R., Viana, E. D., Dewi, F. R. ., & Kaewlaead, C. (2024). The Influence of Macroeconomic Variables on Non-Performing Loan (NPL) at PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk. GREENOMIKA, 6(1), 54–66. https://doi.org/10.55732/unu.gnk.2024.06.1.6

Issue

Section

Articles